Cocoa Powder Shortage: Why It’s Happening and How Bakers Can Adapt

If you’ve found it harder to get cocoa powder lately – or noticed it costing much more – you’re not alone. Home bakers, cottage industry chocolatiers, and small baking businesses worldwide are feeling the pinch of a cocoa powder shortage. Cocoa prices have surged to multi-decade highs, and supplies are tighter than many of us can remember. In this post, we’ll explore the recent cocoa price trends (in both USD and GBP), the key reasons behind the shortage (from West African harvest woes to climate impacts and plant diseases), and how this is affecting supermarket shelves and popular brands in the UK and USA. Importantly, we’ll also share some delicious ideas for baking without cocoa – think fruit-forward, nut-based, and spice-rich treats perfect for spring and summer. Let’s dive in with a warm but factual look at what’s going on and how you can adapt in your kitchen.

Cocoa beans and cocoa powder

Cocoa Prices Surge to Record Highs (USD & GBP)

It’s been a wild ride for cocoa prices over the past two years. In 2023, cocoa beans traded around $2,200–$3,000 per metric ton on global markets. Fast forward to late 2024, and prices skyrocketed beyond $10,000 per ton​ cbi.eu – an unprecedented spike driven by a supply crunch. New York cocoa futures hit record highs, roughly doubling within a year ​reuters.com. Even after some volatility, prices in early 2025 have remained in the $6,000–$8,000 per ton range, far above historical levels​ cbi.eu.

To put it in perspective for UK bakers, the cost of cocoa has soared there as well. In February 2023, cocoa was about £1,900 per tonne, but by late 2023 it reached roughly £4,700 – more than double the earlier price​ hbingredients.co.uk. And it didn’t stop climbing: as of January 2025, cocoa was trading near £9,000 per tonne in London​ hbingredients.co.uk. These record-high costs reflect a global squeeze on cocoa supplies. Industry officials note that the 2023/24 season saw a massive deficit (nearly 470,000 tons short of meeting demand – the largest cocoa shortfall in decades)​ hbingredients.co.uk. In short, cocoa beans are historically expensive right now, which trickles down to cocoa powder prices and availability for all of us.

Why Is There a Cocoa Powder Shortage?

Several factors have combined to create the current cocoa powder shortage and price shock. Here are the key reasons:

• Poor West African Harvests (Climate Impacts): About 70% of the world’s cocoa comes from West Africa, especially Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana​ scw-mag.com. Lately, those regions have suffered extreme weather swings that devastated crops. Unseasonal heavy rains followed by prolonged drought and heat have weakened cocoa trees and cut yields dramatically​ scw-mag.com​scw-mag.com. In fact, 2024 brought the harshest dry Harmattan conditions in six years for West Africa, and many farms saw failed or smaller harvests​theblackmorevale.co.uk. Climate change is making cocoa-growing weather less predictable, directly impacting the annual crop.

• Plant Diseases and Production Challenges: On top of weather woes, cocoa farms have been hit by plant diseases. Notably, the cocoa swollen shoot virus – a virus spreading through West African plantations – has forced farmers to cut down and replant infected trees​ scw-mag.com. This blight weakens cocoa trees and slashes their productivity. Ghana’s cocoa output, for example, plunged to a 20+ year low due to disease and weather combined​ hbingredients.co.uk. Additionally, many plantations have aging trees past peak productivity, and years of low prices left farmers with little resources to invest in new trees or fertilisers​ scw-mag.com. All of this means less cocoa beans are being produced, tightening the supply of cocoa powder that is made from those beans.

• Rising Global Demand for Chocolate: While supply has struggled, demand for cocoa keeps growing. Consumers in emerging markets like China and India are developing a stronger sweet tooth for chocolate, adding to global demand​theblackmorevale.co.uk. At the same time, established markets (UK, USA, Europe) remain chocoholics. This rising demand – even in countries without a long tradition of chocolate – puts extra pressure on cocoa supplies​theblackmorevale.co.uk. Simply put, more people want chocolate just as less cocoa is available, a recipe for shortage. Even compound chocolate producers are using more cocoa powder as a substitute for expensive cocoa butter, further boosting powder demand ​hbingredients.co.uk.

(The result of these factors has been back-to-back years of under-supply. Industry experts are warning that unless upcoming harvests vastly improve, the cocoa shortage could persist for some time​confectionerynews.com​confectionerynews.com.)

Impact on Supermarkets and Chocolate Brands (UK & USA)

What does this cocoa crunch mean on the ground for both big brands and your local grocery store? For one, it’s driving up prices of all things chocolate. The makers of Cadbury and Hershey products have already signaled more price hikes in 2024–2025 to cope with record cocoa costs​ reuters.com. Cocoa prices have roughly doubled year-on-year​ reuters.com, and companies like Hershey have stated they’ll use “every tool in the toolbox” – including raising prices – to manage the impact ​reuters.com. Many popular chocolate bars and baking chocolates are noticeably pricier than a year ago, especially in the UK and US. In fact, one report noted British shoppers saw some chocolate bar prices jump 10% or more in the first half of 2024 alone​ cbi.eu.

Beyond outright price tags, consumers are also encountering shrinkflation. If your favorite chocolate bar seems a bit smaller lately, it’s not your imagination – some brands are shrinking package sizes rather than (or in addition to) hiking the price ​cbi.eu. This tactic has been used on both sides of the Atlantic as manufacturers try not to scare off customers with huge price increases. A UK commentary even pointed out the trend of beloved chocolates getting smaller at the same time prices rise​ greeneconomycoalition.org.

For home bakers specifically, cocoa powder can be tougher to find or noticeably more expensive in supermarkets. Some grocers have had sporadic shortages of cocoa powder on shelves, especially of popular brands. For example, there were reports in the U.S. of stores temporarily running out of Hershey’s unsweetened cocoa as supply tightened. In the UK, baking forums lit up with bakers noting that supermarket own-brand cocoa powder and big names like Cadbury Bournville cocoa were often sold out or limited in quantity. Supermarkets are scrambling to source enough, but they too are facing higher wholesale costs from suppliers confectionerynews.com.

On the supply side, major chocolate manufacturers are making tough choices. Industry giants like Mondelez (Cadbury’s parent) and Hershey are seeing their profit margins squeezed by the cocoa crunch​ scw-mag.com​scw-mag.com. They’ve indicated that further recipe adjustments or smaller product sizes might be on the table, and that higher costs may be passed to retailers and consumers. In some cases, companies have cut back on promotions or limited-time flavours that use a lot of cocoa. The good news is that we’re not “out of chocolate” – your Easter eggs and baking cocoa are still out there – but the era of cheap cocoa is, at least for now, over. Shoppers and small businesses should expect elevated prices and occasionally low stocks until the next good cocoa harvest (hopefully) eases the pressure.

Baking Without Cocoa: Fruit, Nut, and Spice-Rich Alternatives

For avid bakers, a cocoa shortage might feel limiting – after all, how do we live without chocolate cake? 💔 But take heart: this can be an opportunity to explore chocolate-free desserts that are just as delicious. There’s a whole world of fruit-based desserts, nutty treats, and spice-infused bakes that can satisfy a sweet tooth with zero cocoa required. In fact, spring and summer are the perfect seasons to lean into fresh fruits and fragrant spices. Here are some spring baking ideas and alternatives to consider when you’re baking without cocoa:

• Almond and Berry Mini Loaf Cakes: These petite loaf cakes are packed with ground almonds (or almond flour) and studded with fresh berries like blueberries, raspberries, or strawberries. The almonds provide a rich, nutty base that makes the cake moist, while the berries add natural sweetness and a pop of colour. You can drizzle a lemon glaze on top for extra zing. These mini loaves are perfect for farmer’s market fruits and make for a lovely teatime treat – proof that a dessert doesn’t need cocoa to be decadent and satisfying.  Try my Almond & Lemon Mini Loaf Cake recipe here

• Vanilla-Cardamom Bakes: Embrace warm spices by whipping up a vanilla and cardamom cake or batch of cupcakes. Cardamom’s aromatic, citrusy notes paired with pure vanilla create an elegant flavour profile that stands on its own. For instance, a vanilla-cardamom pound cake or bundt cake can be simple yet irresistibly fragrant. You might top it with a light glaze or a dollop of whipped cream. Other spices can shine here too – think cinnamon, nutmeg, or ginger in a spiced sponge cake. These spices add depth, making you hardly miss the chocolate. A spice-rich carrot cake with cinnamon and cloves, or a chai-spiced cake, also fits this category and is fantastic for spring gatherings (plus, it uses carrots and nuts instead of cocoa).

• Seasonal Fruit Tarts: With warmer weather come glorious fruits – which can take centre stage in fruit tarts. Consider baking a classic tart shell (or a simple graham cracker crust) and filling it with pastry cream or whipped mascarpone, then load it up with in-season fruits. A few ideas: a strawberry tart or mixed berry tart in late spring, a peach or apricot tart in summer, or even a zesty lemon tart topped with berries. These desserts are vibrant, colourful, and bursting with flavour from the fruit. They’re also light and refreshing – ideal for those who find chocolate desserts too heavy in the heat. Bonus: they make a stunning display for celebrations, no cocoa needed.

Elegant strawberry tart with vanilla bean crème pâtissière in a pâte sucrée shell, topped with fresh strawberries and edible flowers 

• Light Pavlovas with Fresh Fruit: A pavlova is a beautiful way to showcase fruits and enjoy a dessert that feels airy. This meringue-based dessert (crisp on the outside, marshmallowy on the inside) is traditionally topped with whipped cream and a bounty of fresh fruit. You can bake mini pavlovas or one big one. Pile on kiwis, strawberries, blueberries, passionfruit pulp – whatever you have. The result is a naturally gluten-free, cocoa-free dessert that’s perfect for summer parties. The sweetness of the meringue and cream pairs with the tartness of fruit for a balanced treat. Pavlovas are also great for using up extra egg whites, which many bakers have in the fridge.  Try my Peach & Brown Butter Pavlova click here for the recipe

 A lemon and mint individual pavlova.

• Nutty Cakes and Cookies: Nuts can provide a hearty, satisfying richness to desserts that you might otherwise rely on chocolate for. Try a walnut or pecan cake (for example, an espresso walnut cake can give some of the bitterness you’d get from chocolate). An almond-orange cake (using ground almonds and orange zest) is another moist, flavourful option that feels indulgent without cocoa. Don’t forget classics like baklava or nut brittle if you’re adventurous – they highlight nuts and caramelised sugar. Even simple nut cookies (almond biscotti, pecan sandies, peanut butter cookies with no cocoa) can curb a sweet craving. These nut-based treats have protein and crunch, offering a different kind of satisfaction. Many world cuisines have beloved chocolate-free desserts featuring nuts and spices – from Indian besan ladoo (sweet chickpea flour and cardamom balls) to Italian ricciarelli (soft almond cookies). Explore them during this cocoa shortage; you might discover new favourites!

Incorporating more fruits, nuts, and spices not only helps you work around the cocoa shortage, but it can also make your baking lineup more seasonal and diverse. Fruit-based desserts celebrate the produce of spring/summer, nut-based cakes offer richness and texture, and spice-rich bakes bring warmth and aroma that people love. These ideas are also friendly for customers who may prefer lighter desserts in warm weather or those with dietary preferences steering away from chocolate. So, while cocoa powder is scarce, there’s no shortage of sweet inspiration!

Turning a Challenge into an Opportunity

The current cocoa powder shortage is certainly challenging – for global companies and home bakers alike. We’ve seen how a mix of bad weather, crop disease, and surging demand created a perfect storm for cocoa, sending prices through the roof and making chocolate a more expensive luxury. Supermarkets and brands are adapting with higher prices and smaller sizes, and we all feel the difference when shopping for baking ingredients.

But as every baker knows, constraints can spark creativity. Until cocoa supplies stabilise (experts are hopeful for improvement if upcoming harvests recover​ confectionerynews.com), consider this an opportunity to embrace new flavours. Your spring and summer baking menu can lean into juicy fruits, crunchy nuts, and fragrant spices, delighting customers and family with treats that are unique and seasonal. Many of these cocoa-free desserts are lighter and a great fit for warmer months, so they might just become hits even beyond the current shortage.

Finally, keep an eye on the market: cocoa prices are expected to remain high in the short term ​cbi.eu, but they could ease if production rebounds in West Africa and elsewhere. In the meantime, baking without cocoa is not only possible – it can be wonderfully rewarding. After all, the world of desserts is vast and varied. From a colourful berry tart to a spiced almond loaf, there are plenty of spring baking ideas that don’t require a single spoonful of cocoa powder. Happy baking, and here’s to discovering delicious new favourites while we weather the cocoa shortage together!

Sources: Recent news and industry reports on cocoa prices and shortages​ cbi.eu​reuters.com​hbingredients.co.uk​ theblackmorevale.co.uk​ scw-mag.com​scw-mag.com​ ​confectionerynews.com (see inline citations for details).